Let’s get one thing straight: Auston Matthews’ 2024-25 season, where he posted 33 goals and 45 assists for 78 points in 67 games, has fantasy owners panicking. A 1.16 points-per-game pace is elite for most, but for a player of Matthews’ calibre, it felt like a step back, especially from a goal-scoring perspective. Many are wondering if his days of challenging for 70 goals are over.
Spoiler alert: he’s about to make everyone forget that season ever happened.
After a deep dive into his evolving game, his linemates, and his underlying metrics, we’re projecting a massive bounce-back for AM34 in the 2025-26 campaign. Forget the sub-80-point performance; we’re looking at a return to the truly elite tier of fantasy production. The regression from his near 70-goal season was expected, but the pendulum is about to swing firmly back in the other direction.
Our official 2025-26 projection for Auston Matthews is 54 goals and 52 assists for 106 points.
Here’s why we’re so confident.
Analyzing Matthews’ Path Back to 100+ Points
Last season was an anomaly, not a new trend. While the goal total dipped, his 45 assists in just 67 games represent the highest assist-per-game pace of his entire career. This isn’t a sign of decline; it’s a mark of evolution. Matthews is no longer just the league’s most dangerous triggerman; he’s developed into a premier dual-threat pivot who can distribute the puck with the best of them.
Now, entering the 2025-26 season fully healthy and with a complete summer of training, expect him to synthesize these two skill sets. His shot volume will climb back to his career norms, and with it, his shooting percentage will positively regress from last season’s dip. The result is a player who can beat you with his shot or his pass, making him nearly impossible to defend.
Why the Maple Leafs Power Play is Key to Matthews’ Resurgence
The power play is where superstars truly feast, and the Leafs’ top unit is a fantasy goldmine waiting to be tapped. Imagine this setup: Matthews in his office on the flank, ready to unload a one-timer. William Nylander is the primary puck carrier, gaining the zone with ease and using his sublime creativity to open up seams. At the net front, you have the strength and finishing ability of John Tavares to bang in rebounds and create chaos. Matthew Knies provides the gritty puck retrieval and board work, ensuring possession stays in the offensive zone. Quarterbacking it all from the blue line is Morgan Rielly, one of the league’s best passers from the point.
This five-man unit is a perfect blend of skill, power, and hockey IQ. They will convert at a high clip, and Matthews will be the primary beneficiary, potting at least 15-18 goals with the man advantage alone. A healthy and motivated Matthews on a power play this potent is a recipe for a return to the top of the goal-scoring race and a lock for over 100 points.
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