Let’s cut right to the chase. You want to know if Jake Guentzel is going to be a league-winner for your fantasy hockey team. After spending his career attached to the hip of Sidney Crosby, the move to Florida has been seamless. He has replicated his success with a new cast, and can he do it again this coming NHL season?
My answer is an emphatic yes. In fact, I’m projecting a career year.
Guentzel isn’t just maintaining his fantasy value by moving to Tampa; he’s poised to shatter his previous bests. We’re talking about a player who just posted 41 goals and 80 points in 80 games. That’s elite production by any measure. Now, swap one generational talent in Crosby for another in Nikita Kucherov, the reigning king of assists and offensive wizardry. This isn’t a lateral move; for a pure goal-scorer like Guentzel, it’s an upgrade in his specific role. The gravity of Kucherov and Brayden Point will create acres of space for Guentzel to operate in his office—the high-danger scoring areas.
Can Guentzel Hit 90 Points with the Lightning?
Last season’s 80 points were impressive, but the underlying context in Tampa suggests that’s his new floor, not his ceiling. For years, I’ve watched Guentzel master the art of finding soft spots in coverage and capitalizing with a lightning-quick release. He’s a volume shooter who doesn’t need much time or space to get the puck on net.
With Crosby, he thrived in a system built on puck possession and cycling. In Tampa, he entered an offensive juggernaut that thrives on quick strikes and overwhelming talent. He’s the missing piece they’ve been searching for: a dedicated, high-volume goal scorer to complement their elite playmakers. The fit is, quite simply, perfect.
Decoding Guentzel’s Role on the NHL’s Most Dangerous Power Play
The real goldmine for Guentzel’s fantasy value lies with the man advantage. The Lightning power play, already a terrifying unit, is virtually unstoppable with Guentzel. With Kucherov orchestrating, Victor Hedman at the point, and Point creating chaos down low. Now, with Guentzel as the primary trigger man in the bumper spot or as a net-front nightmare. Opposing penalty kills simply won’t have enough bodies to cover every threat. Guentzel will feast on the high-quality chances generated by Kucherov and Hedman. I fully expect a significant portion of his production—perhaps 15-18 goals—to come from the power play alone.
Considering his 5-on-5 deployment with elite talent and his prime role on PP1, I’m confidently setting my official Jake Guentzel point projections for 2025-26 at:
Projected Stats: 45 Goals, 47 Assists, 92 Points
This would mark a new career-high for Guentzel, and I believe it’s a completely attainable target. Draft him with confidence as a top-15 player, and don’t be surprised when he finishes the season inside the top 10.
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