So, the ink is dry on John Tavares’s new four-year, $18 million contract extension. While Leafs Nation breathes a collective sigh of relief, fantasy hockey managers are asking the real multi-million dollar question: What does this mean for his production in 2025-26? After a fantastic campaign last year where he posted 38 goals and 36 assists for 74 points in 75 games, the pressure is on to repeat. Can he do it?
Let’s cut right to the chase. I’m projecting another highly productive season for the Maple Leafs’ captain. Forget any dramatic age-related decline for now; the stability of this new contract and his cemented role in the top-six and on the top power-play unit are massive factors.
My official 2025-2026 projection for John Tavares is 36 goals and 37 assists for 73 points.
This slight dip from 74 points isn’t a red flag; it’s simply accounting for natural variance in a long NHL season. Expecting an exact replica of his 38-goal performance is tough, but his elite hockey IQ and net-front prowess ensure he remains a premier goal-scorer.
Breaking Down Tavares’s 2025-26 Point Projection
Let’s be clear: a 73-point season from a player many critics were beginning to write off would be a huge win for both the Leafs and fantasy managers. Tavares proved last season that he still possesses the elite skill set to be a difference-maker. His hands in tight spaces are still world-class, and his ability to read the play and find soft spots in the defensive zone remains uncanny. The decline in foot speed has been a topic for years, but he’s adapted his game, becoming a master of positioning and leverage.
At even strength, he continues to be a reliable producer. While he may not drive a line with the same explosive transition play as his younger teammates, he excels below the dots in the offensive zone. The key will be maintaining his health and his shooting percentage, which hovered around a sustainable 14-15% last season. A 36-goal campaign is well within reach, especially if he continues to see consistent linemates and offensive zone starts. The 37-assist projection reflects his role as both a triggerman and a capable playmaker in the cycle game.
Power Play Production is Key to Tavares’s Success
Where Tavares will continue to make his money—both literally and for your fantasy team—is on the power play. Just look at that top unit: Auston Matthews, William Nylander, Matthew Knies, and Morgan Rielly. That is an embarrassment of riches. Tavares is the lynchpin in the bumper spot or at the net-front, capitalizing on the space created by the perimeter threats of Matthews and Nylander.
He’s the guy who cashes in on rebounds, tips pucks, and buries one-timers from the slot. Roughly 35-40% of his total points should come with the man advantage, providing a rock-solid floor for his fantasy production. As long as he remains the primary net-front presence on PP1, a 70-point pace is not just possible; it should be the expectation.
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