Connor McDavid is not just the safest superstar in fantasy hockey, he is still the player who can single-handedly tilt an entire league. After posting 48 goals and 90 assists for 138 points in 82 games last season with the Edmonton Oilers, the obvious question for fantasy managers is not whether McDavid should be drafted first overall. The better question is this: how high can the ceiling go in 2026-27?
My early Connor McDavid point projections 2026-27 forecast is 50 goals, 96 assists and 146 points in 82 games.
That may sound aggressive, but it is not reckless. McDavid is coming off a full 82-game season, remains the offensive engine of the Oilers, and continues to benefit from one of the NHL’s most dangerous power-play setups. When you surround him with Leon Draisaitl’s finishing ability, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins’ puck movement, Zach Hyman’s net-front instincts and Evan Bouchard’s shot/pass threat from the blue line, you are not projecting a normal elite player. You are projecting the best fantasy hockey environment in the league.
Connor McDavid Career NHL Stats
| Type | GP | G | A | P | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season | 794 | 409 | 811 | 1220 | 186 |
| Playoffs | 102 | 45 | 111 | 156 | 23 |
Connor McDavid Point Projections 2026-27 Fantasy Outlook
Here is my fantasy hockey projection for Connor McDavid this coming season:
| Category | Projection |
|---|---|
| Games Played | 82 |
| Goals | 50 |
| Assists | 96 |
| Points | 146 |
| Fantasy Draft Value | No. 1 overall pick |
| Floor | 125 points |
| Ceiling | 155+ points |
The reason I am pushing McDavid slightly above last season’s 138-point total comes down to two things: power-play stability and assist upside. McDavid had 90 assists last year, and I believe there is still room for that number to climb if Edmonton’s finishing talent stays healthy around him.
Draisaitl remains one of the best one-time finishers in hockey. Hyman gives McDavid a direct, north-south scoring option around the crease. Nugent-Hopkins keeps plays alive and rarely panics under pressure. Bouchard is the kind of offensive defenseman who forces penalty killers to respect the point shot, which opens seams below the circles. For fantasy hockey, that matters because McDavid does not need Edmonton to dominate at five-on-five every night to pile up points. The power play gives him a weekly safety net.
My Connor McDavid Fantasy Projection Model
My projection model starts with McDavid’s 1.68 points-per-game pace from last season and gives him a slight boost based on role security, power-play chemistry and the fact Edmonton’s offense still runs directly through him. This is a fantasy projection based on production history, usage, lineup context and personal observation from watching how the Oilers structure their attack.
What stands out most with McDavid is how quickly he creates secondary scoring chances. A lot of elite players need a clean rush or a set play to generate offense. McDavid can create a point from a broken zone entry, a loose puck recovery or a one-on-two that should not become dangerous. That is why I am comfortable projecting him close to 150 points again.
The goal projection is also important. McDavid scored 48 goals last season, and a 50-goal season is very realistic if his shot volume stays high. He is no longer just a pass-first fantasy asset. He has become a complete category driver who can win goals, assists, power-play points and overall points.
For fantasy managers, the strategy is simple: do not overthink it. If you have the first overall pick, McDavid should be the selection in standard points leagues, keeper leagues and most category formats. Nathan MacKinnon, Macklin Celebrini, Leon Draisaitl and Nikita Kucherov will all have strong cases near the top of drafts, but McDavid still offers the cleanest combination of floor and ceiling.
The only real concern is health, and that applies to every elite fantasy player. If McDavid plays 78-plus games, I have a hard time seeing him falling below 130 points. If he plays the full 82 and the Oilers power play is even close to its normal level, 145 to 150 points is absolutely in play.
My official Connor McDavid point projections 2026-27 prediction: 50 goals, 96 assists and 146 points.
For fantasy hockey owners, that makes McDavid the No. 1 ranked player on my draft board and still the closest thing to a cheat code in the NHL.
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