My Alex DeBrincat point projections for 2026-27 have the Detroit Red Wings winger producing 40 goals, 46 assists and 86 points in 84 games.
That forecast represents another elite fantasy hockey season, but it comes with an important distinction. I am not projecting DeBrincat to make a dramatic offensive leap after recording 41 goals, 44 assists, and 85 points in 82 games last season. Instead, I expect him to remain remarkably consistent, with a slight decline in goals being offset by additional assists and two extra regular-season games.
DeBrincat led Detroit in both goals and points during 2025-26, establishing new career highs in assists and points while matching his career-best goal total. The NHL schedule expands from 82 to 84 games in 2026-27, and simply maintaining last season’s scoring rate would place him at approximately 87 points. My official 86-point projection is therefore realistic rather than overly aggressive.
The immediate fantasy takeaway is that DeBrincat should remain one of the NHL’s safest goal-scoring wingers. He will continue receiving premium offensive opportunities alongside Dylan Larkin and Lucas Raymond, while Moritz Seider should remain an important part of Detroit’s power-play attack. Newcomer Viktor Arvidsson could provide another shooting threat, although Detroit’s final power-play combinations will not be settled until training camp.
Alex DeBrincat Fantasy Hockey Projection for 2026-27
| Category | 2025-26 Actual | 2026-27 Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Games Played | 82 | 84 |
| Goals | 41 | 40 |
| Assists | 44 | 46 |
| Points | 85 | 86 |
| Projected Power-Play Points | — | 29 |
| Points Per Game | 1.04 | 1.02 |
Can Alex DeBrincat Score 40 Goals Again?
The strongest argument supporting another 40-goal season is DeBrincat’s shooting volume. Through 75 games last season, he had already established a career high with 269 shots on goal, ranking fifth in the NHL at that point. High-volume shooters are generally less dependent on short-lived shooting-percentage spikes, and DeBrincat has now reached 41 goals three times during his NHL career.
My personal observation is that DeBrincat’s evolution in Detroit has made his fantasy floor safer. He is still known for his release, but he no longer waits exclusively for perfect one-timer opportunities. He attacks rebounds, works into traffic, and generates goals from more areas of the offensive zone.
Red Wings head coach Todd McLellan described DeBrincat as an exceptionally hungry and tenacious player, noting that his competitiveness creates additional goals beyond those generated by skill alone. DeBrincat also said during Detroit’s playoff push, “I feel like each year I’m getting better.” His 85-point season supported that assessment and confirmed that his value is no longer tied exclusively to goals.
Detroit’s Power Play Will Determine DeBrincat’s Ceiling
DeBrincat’s path to exceeding 86 points will likely run through Detroit’s top power-play unit. Raymond gives the Red Wings an elite distributor; Larkin can score or create from the middle of the ice; and Seider provides a powerful shot and puck-moving presence from the blue line.
Arvidsson’s addition creates another interesting possibility. Detroit signed the veteran forward to a two-year contract after he produced 443 points in 682 career NHL games. His willingness to shoot could prevent penalty killers from leaning too heavily toward DeBrincat, but it could also create competition for touches and a spot on the first unit.
I would project DeBrincat for approximately 29 power-play points. A finish above 30 is attainable if Detroit keeps its core healthy and Arvidsson fits naturally into the unit. Conversely, a decline in Detroit’s power-play efficiency would make it difficult for DeBrincat to approach 90 total points.
Where Should Alex DeBrincat Be Drafted in Fantasy Hockey?
DeBrincat is best targeted in the late third or fourth round of a standard 12-team fantasy hockey draft. NHL.com currently ranks him 35th among forwards and 48th overall for 2026-27, which places him near the end of the fourth round in a 12-team format.
I would move him higher in leagues that reward goals, shots, and power-play production. His value is slightly lower in formats that heavily emphasize hits and blocked shots, but he remains an excellent roster anchor because of his durability, consistent shot generation, and secure offensive role.
My projected range has DeBrincat finishing between 78 and 91 points. The lower end accounts for power-play regression or missed time, while the upper end assumes another 40-goal performance and increased production from Detroit’s supporting forwards.
The most likely outcome is 40 goals, 46 assists, and 86 points. DeBrincat may not possess the 100-point ceiling of the first-round fantasy superstars, but his combination of goal scoring, shot volume and lineup security makes him one of the safer high-end wingers available after the opening rounds.
Alex DeBrincat Career NHL Stats
| Type | GP | G | A | P | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season | 696 | 294 | 301 | 595 | -49 |
| Playoffs | 9 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 4 |
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