The Buffalo Sabres are a playoff team in my 2026-27 projection, but I am not picking them to repeat as Atlantic Division champions. My forecast is 47-28-9 for 103 points, which I have finishing fourth in the Atlantic and in an Eastern Conference wild-card position.
That may sound pessimistic for a team coming off a 50-23-9 season and 109 points, but Buffalo enters this year with two major questions. First, the Sabres traded away Alex Tuch and Bowen Byram, who combined for 108 points last season. Second, Buffalo’s excellent results slightly outpaced its five-on-five process. The Sabres scored 283 goals, fifth-most in the NHL, but finished below 50 percent in several underlying territorial categories.
My read on this roster is that Buffalo is young, deep and legitimately dangerous, but its margin for error has shrunk. Zach Benson, Josh Doan, Jack Quinn, Jiri Kulich and Konsta Helenius now have to turn potential into production. And looming over everything is the possibility of a blockbuster goaltending change after Connor Hellebuyck publicly requested a trade from Winnipeg on August 27. Buffalo has previously been involved in Hellebuyck trade discussions, although no new Sabres-Jets deal has been confirmed.
One other change matters when reading every prediction below: the NHL schedule expands to 84 games per team in 2026-27, so the projected record is based on 84 games rather than 82.
Where the Buffalo Sabres Stand Entering 2026-27
Buffalo’s foundation is considerably stronger than it was even two years ago.
Tage Thompson remains one of the NHL’s most dangerous goal scorers. He finished 2025-26 with 40 goals and 81 points, including 31 goals at five-on-five. Rasmus Dahlin produced a career-high 74 points in 77 games, finished third in Norris Trophy voting and gives Buffalo a true No. 1 defenseman capable of driving offense in every situation.
Behind them, the roster has become unusually deep in players entering or approaching their prime.
Benson produced 43 points in 65 games before adding nine points in 13 playoff games. Buffalo rewarded him with a seven-year, $52.5 million contract. Josh Doan broke out for 25 goals and 52 points, while Ryan McLeod reached 54 points and provided significant value on the penalty kill.
From a fantasy hockey perspective, Thompson and Dahlin remain the safest high-end Sabres targets, while Benson is the player I would circle as a potential breakout. Doan’s combination of 25-goal production and power-play usage is also interesting, and Olen Zellweger could become a deeper fantasy option if his offensive role expands.
The biggest concern I see is that Buffalo must replace significant established production without having added a comparable established scorer.
Buffalo Sabres Offseason Changes for 2026-27
General manager Jarmo Kekäläinen was aggressive after taking over for Kevyn Adams in December 2025. Lindy Ruff, meanwhile, received a two-year extension through 2027-28 after coaching Buffalo back to the postseason.
Players Added
Olen Zellweger, D
Acquired from the Anaheim Ducks for Anton Wahlberg and a 2026 second-round pick. Zellweger had seven goals and 22 points in 76 games last season and subsequently signed a three-year contract carrying a $3.1 million cap hit. He does not replace Byram one-for-one, but his skating and puck movement give Buffalo another transition weapon.
Louis Crevier, D
Acquired from Chicago along with the fourth and 45th picks in the 2026 NHL Draft for Bowen Byram and Jordan Greenway. At 6-foot-8, Crevier changes the physical profile of Buffalo’s blue line. He produced 25 points while blocking 95 shots last season and could earn minutes beside Owen Power.
Conor Sheary, F
Signed to a one-year contract after recording 18 points with the Rangers. I view Sheary more as experienced organizational depth than a guaranteed top-nine answer.
The more important “additions” may actually come internally. Konsta Helenius scored 63 points in 63 AHL games, while Jiri Kulich should again compete for a significant NHL role after a blood-clot issue limited him to 12 games last season.
Buffalo also drafted defenseman Daxon Rudolph fourth overall, but he is headed to the University of Denver and should be viewed as a major future asset rather than a 2026-27 NHL lineup solution.
Players Who Left
Alex Tuch, RW – Washington Capitals
Tuch was signed and traded to Washington after contract negotiations failed to produce a long-term fit in Buffalo. His 33 goals and 66 points represented major top-six production that has to be replaced internally.
Bowen Byram, D – Chicago Blackhawks
Byram was moved to Chicago after a career-best 42-point season. Losing a mobile 42-point defenseman is significant even with Zellweger arriving.
Jordan Greenway, F – Chicago Blackhawks
Included in the Byram trade. His offensive numbers were limited, but his size and forechecking provided a dimension Buffalo will need to replace collectively.
Michael Kesselring, D – San Jose Sharks
Moved with the No. 27 pick for the No. 20 selection in the draft.
Devon Levi, G – Edmonton Oilers
Buffalo sent Levi and a 2028 seventh-round pick to Edmonton for a 2028 third. Levi spent last season primarily in Rochester, so this does not change the immediate NHL tandem as much as it formally closes one chapter of Buffalo’s long-term goaltending plan.
My assessment: Buffalo became younger and more financially flexible, but not unquestionably better for 2026-27. The Sabres are betting that the development curve of Benson, Quinn, Doan, Kulich, Helenius and others can replace production that previously came from established veterans.
Buffalo Sabres 2025-26 Top Five Scorers
Buffalo’s five leading regular-season scorers were Tage Thompson, Rasmus Dahlin, Alex Tuch, Ryan McLeod and Josh Doan. The statistics below are Buffalo-only totals and do not include production accumulated with another franchise.
The Tuch departure is the number that jumps off this table. Buffalo does not need one player to produce 66 points, but it probably needs two or three young forwards to combine for meaningful year-over-year improvement.
What Will Define the Buffalo Sabres 2026-27 Season?
The first factor is five-on-five sustainability.
Buffalo’s 50 wins were backed by a strong 283-240 goal differential, but its underlying profile was less dominant. At five-on-five the Sabres recorded a 49.9 percent Corsi share, 48.7 percent scoring-chance share and 49.7 percent high-danger chance share. Their expected-goals count was 175.5 for and 182.0 against despite actually outscoring opponents heavily in those minutes. Buffalo also finished with a 101.7 PDO.
That does not mean last season was a fluke. It means I would not automatically project another 109-plus-point season without improvement in puck possession and chance generation.
The second factor is the power play. Buffalo converted at 19.51 percent compared with a 21.11 percent league average. The penalty kill was far better at 81.90 percent. Losing Tuch creates another power-play vacancy, but Dahlin, Thompson, Benson, Doan and Quinn give Ruff enough skill to improve the unit.
The third factor is goaltending.
Alex Lyon went 20-10-4 with roughly a .907 save percentage, while Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen went 22-9-3 with a .910 mark. The problem came in the postseason, when Luukkonen finished at .876 and Ruff was forced to alternate his goaltenders against Montreal.
And now there is Connor Hellebuyck.
Hellebuyck publicly confirmed on August 27 that he had privately requested a trade months earlier. Sportsnet subsequently identified Buffalo as an especially logical destination, and previous reporting established that the Sabres and Jets had discussed a deal earlier in the offseason. A trade is not confirmed, so this preview and its 103-point projection are based on Buffalo’s roster without Hellebuyck.
If Buffalo actually acquires him without gutting its young core, I would revisit the Sabres as a potential Atlantic champion.
Projected Buffalo Sabres 2026-27 Lineup
Projected – not a confirmed opening-night roster
Forwards
Line 1: Zach Benson – Josh Norris – Tage Thompson
Line 2: Josh Doan – Ryan McLeod – Jack Quinn
Line 3: Jiri Kulich – Konsta Helenius – Jason Zucker
Line 4: Peyton Krebs – Sam Carrick – Beck Malenstyn
Competition/extra options: Noah Ostlund, Justin Danforth, Tyson Kozak, Conor Sheary
Defense
Pair 1: Mattias Samuelsson – Rasmus Dahlin
Pair 2: Owen Power – Louis Crevier
Pair 3: Olen Zellweger – Conor Timmins
Extra: Zach Metsa
Goalies
Starter: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
Backup: Alex Lyon
NHL.com’s July projection used Ostlund rather than Kulich on the third line. I am putting Kulich there if medically cleared because his goal-scoring ability gives Buffalo something it needs after losing Tuch. Training camp could easily flip that decision. PuckPedia currently lists Danforth and Kulich on injured reserve and Ostlund out, all week-to-week as of August 30, so their camp availability should be monitored rather than assumed.
Buffalo Sabres 2026-27 Point Projection
Projected record: 47-28-9
Projected points: 103
Atlantic Division: 4th
Projected Eastern Conference standing: approximately 7th
Playoff prediction: Wild-card team
The math is exact for the new 84-game schedule:
47 wins x 2 points = 94 points
9 overtime/shootout losses = 9 points
Total = 103 points
The reason I’m lower than last year’s 109 points is not because I expect Buffalo to collapse. I expect some regression in finishing and five-on-five results, while the roster simultaneously asks more of players in their early 20s.
There is upside to beat 103. Benson could become a 60-point forward. Kulich could deliver 20-plus goals. Helenius could establish himself quickly. Zellweger may unlock another dimension in transition.
And if Luukkonen proves last year’s regular-season numbers are sustainable – or Buffalo acquires Hellebuyck – the ceiling rises significantly.
2026-27 Atlantic Division Standings Prediction
The Atlantic may be the hardest division to forecast.
Florida added Brady Tkachuk and Jacob Markstrom after an injury-ravaged season. Tampa Bay replaced 70-point defenseman Darren Raddysh with John Carlson. Montreal retained a young core that reached the Eastern Conference Final. Boston added JJ Peterka. Ottawa lost Brady Tkachuk but acquired William Eklund and Andre Burakovsky. Toronto completely reworked its roster around Auston Matthews and William Nylander, adding Sergei Bobrovsky, Darren Raddysh and No. 1 pick Gavin McKenna. Detroit enters with more uncertainty, including Dylan Larkin’s trade request.
What stands out to me is that 103 points could represent a successful season and still produce a fourth-place finish. That is a reflection of the Atlantic, not an indictment of Buffalo.
Buffalo Sabres Salary Cap Analysis
PuckPedia currently projects Buffalo at a $98,876,348 cap hit against the $104 million upper limit, leaving approximately $5,123,652 in projected cap space with a 23-player active roster. Its current model projects as much as $23,666,393 in deadline cap space if the roster and accrual assumptions develop accordingly.
That is meaningful flexibility for a team expecting to make the playoffs.
Dahlin owns the largest individual cap hit at $11 million. Other substantial long-term commitments include Owen Power at $8.35 million, Josh Norris at $7.95 million, Benson at $7.5 million and Thompson at roughly $7.14 million. Buffalo is also carrying a $6.444 million Jeff Skinner buyout charge this season.
The next contract decisions include unrestricted free agents Jason Zucker, Justin Danforth, Sam Carrick, Conor Timmins, Zach Metsa and Alex Lyon, while Jack Quinn, Noah Ostlund and Louis Crevier can become restricted free agents after the season.
That makes Quinn especially important. If he breaks through offensively, his next contract becomes significantly more expensive.
The Hellebuyck situation is also tied directly to the cap. His contract carries an $8.5 million AAV, meaning Buffalo cannot simply absorb his entire contract into today’s $5.12 million of projected room without sending salary out or making other roster adjustments.
NHLTradeRumor.com 2026-27 Team Outlook Model
This is an original NHLTradeRumor.com analytical model, not a third-party rating. Each category is scored equally from 1-10 based on current roster quality, previous-season performance, underlying data, age/trajectory, contract flexibility and organizational stability.
Trade Value Analysis: Jason Zucker Is the Name to Watch if Things Go Wrong
Buffalo should enter the season buying rather than selling, so I do not expect a major deadline sell-off.
But Jason Zucker is the obvious conditional trade asset if the season unexpectedly goes sideways. He is 34, carries a $4.75 million cap hit and can become an unrestricted free agent after the season. That combination – veteran winger, expiring deal and playoff experience – generally creates deadline utility.
This is not a report that Buffalo is shopping Zucker. It is roster-management analysis based on his contract situation.
What Happened With Earlier Buffalo Sabres Reports?
NHLTradeRumor.com has tracked a potential Connor Hellebuyck-to-Buffalo trade throughout the summer.
Earlier coverage correctly distinguished reported Sabres-Jets discussions from a completed transaction. On August 23, the site noted that no renewed negotiations had been reported even though Buffalo remained connected to the situation. Four days later, Hellebuyck publicly confirmed that he had requested a trade from Winnipeg months earlier.
That validates one important part of the earlier storyline: Hellebuyck’s future in Winnipeg really was unsettled.
It does not validate a Buffalo trade.
As of August 30, the responsible conclusion is that Buffalo is a logical and previously reported potential destination, while Hellebuyck remains a Winnipeg Jet and no new Sabres-Jets transaction has been announced. NHLTradeRumor.com’s August 27 follow-up made that same distinction.
Four Things I’m Watching Closely
My biggest concern: Buffalo’s results were stronger than its five-on-five process. If the finishing rate cools without a corresponding improvement in possession and chance creation, the Sabres could lose several of the standings points they banked last year.
The player who could change everything: Jiri Kulich. Buffalo already knows Thompson can score 40. What the Sabres need is inexpensive secondary finishing. A healthy Kulich becoming a 20-goal threat would alter the entire depth chart.
The offseason move I like most: Olen Zellweger. Buffalo sacrificed some established defensive production by moving Byram, but adding a 22-year-old puck-moving defenseman at a $3.1 million cap hit gives Kekäläinen upside without damaging his ability to make another move.
My prediction: Buffalo will be good again, just not as dominant in the standings. I see a 100-plus-point club forced into a wild-card battle because the Atlantic has become viciously competitive.
Final Buffalo Sabres 2026-27 Prediction
Projected Record: 47-28-9
Projected Points: 103
Division Finish: 4th in Atlantic
Playoff Prediction: Wild-card berth
Stanley Cup Outlook: Dark-horse contender, but outside my top tier
Biggest X-Factor: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
Buffalo can outperform this projection if three things happen simultaneously: the young forwards replace most of Tuch’s lost offense, the Sabres improve their five-on-five expected-goal profile and Luukkonen turns last year’s regular-season performance into a genuine No. 1 goaltending season.
There is also one enormous wild card that could rewrite the forecast overnight. If Buffalo wins the Connor Hellebuyck trade sweepstakes without sacrificing the most important pieces of its young core, the Sabres move from my wild-card tier toward the group capable of winning the Atlantic and making a serious Stanley Cup run.
For readers following the roster throughout the season, natural internal-link opportunities include Buffalo Sabres trade rumors, the Buffalo Sabres salary cap, the Buffalo Sabres TV schedule, relevant Tage Thompson and Rasmus Dahlin player pages, NHL fantasy hockey, league-wide NHL trade rumors and daily NHL news coverage.
The post Buffalo Sabres Season Preview 2026-27: Can Buffalo Repeat Its Breakthrough? appeared first on NHL Trade Rumors.
