The Detroit Red Wings should be competitive enough to stay in the 2026-27 playoff race, but my projection still has Hockeytown falling just short. I have Detroit finishing 43-31-8 for 94 points, sixth in the Atlantic Division and 10th in the Eastern Conference.
That prediction comes with an enormous condition: Dylan Larkin remains a Red Wing.
Detroit enters the season with a better physical identity after adding Viktor Arvidsson and Keegan Kolesar, another year of development for Moritz Seider, Lucas Raymond, Simon Edvinsson, Marco Kasper, Emmitt Finnie and Axel Sandin-Pellikka, and more than enough salary-cap flexibility to make another major move. But there is no getting around the central storyline.
Larkin requested a trade after another playoff miss, former general manager Steve Yzerman has moved into an advisory role, Detroit is still searching for its permanent hockey-operations leader, and Edvinsson remains an unsigned restricted free agent.
My read on this roster is that the Red Wings are better equipped to survive the regular season than they were a year ago. I am not yet convinced they are better enough to survive the Atlantic Division.
Detroit finished 41-31-10 with 92 points in 2025-26 but missed the playoffs for a 10th consecutive season. The Red Wings scored 239 goals and allowed 254. Their 22.58 percent power play was slightly better than the 21.11 percent league average, but the penalty kill finished at 77.14 percent and their overall save percentage was .888.
The most revealing number may be the one at even strength. NHL.com notes Detroit finished 30th with only 142 goals at 5-on-5. The Red Wings also ranked 29th in hits, which helps explain why the offseason was geared toward Arvidsson’s even-strength scoring and Kolesar’s physicality.
That is the real challenge for Todd McLellan. Detroit cannot continue relying on its power play, Alex DeBrincat’s finishing ability and timely stretches from Larkin and Raymond to cover for mediocre five-on-five production.
What stands out to me is that the foundation is stronger than the standings sometimes make it appear. DeBrincat is coming off an 85-point, 41-goal season. Raymond had 76 points. Seider exploded for 60 points while averaging 25:40 per game. Edvinsson, assuming his contract situation is resolved, gives Detroit the other half of a legitimate top pairing.
The issue is what comes after them.
Detroit Red Wings Offseason Changes for 2026-27
Players Added
Viktor Arvidsson — Free agent from Boston
Detroit signed Arvidsson to a two-year, $10 million contract carrying a $5 million cap hit. He produced 25 goals and 54 points in 69 games for Boston last season. More importantly for Detroit, 45 of those points came at even strength. That is exactly the type of production the Red Wings lacked.
I like this signing more for fit than name recognition. Arvidsson does not need to replace Patrick Kane stylistically. He needs to create offense away from the power play and make Detroit’s second line harder to defend.
Keegan Kolesar — Trade with Vegas
Detroit sent a 2029 third-round pick and 2027 seventh-round pick to Vegas for Kolesar, who has two years remaining at a $2.5 million cap hit. He recorded 270 hits last season, seventh-most in the NHL, after playing all 82 regular-season games for Vegas.
He gives McLellan a forechecking presence Detroit simply did not have enough of last season.
Daniil Tarasov — Free agent from Florida
Tarasov signed for one year at $2 million and is projected to back up John Gibson. He went 13-15-3 with a .895 save percentage in 33 appearances for Florida in 2025-26.
Jacob Bryson — Free agent
The veteran defenseman signed a one-year, $850,000 deal after splitting last season between Buffalo and Winnipeg. He projects more as NHL depth than a player Detroit should need in its top six.
Sutter Muzzatti — Trade with Nashville
Detroit acquired the 6-foot-6 forward for future considerations on August 20 and signed him to a two-year entry-level contract. He is more of an organizational-development addition than a projected opening-night NHL piece.
Players Who Left
Patrick Kane — Chicago Blackhawks
Kane’s return to Chicago removes Detroit’s fifth-leading scorer from 2025-26. He had 16 goals and 57 points in 67 games. Losing his puck skills and power-play creativity matters, although Arvidsson’s stronger even-strength profile gives Detroit a different type of replacement.
James van Riemsdyk — UFA
The veteran contributed 15 goals and 31 points last season. Replacing that depth scoring will require younger players to take another step.
Cam Talbot — UFA
Talbot went 12-9-6 last season and has been replaced on the projected depth chart by Tarasov.
David Perron and Travis Hamonic — UFAs
Neither departure radically alters Detroit’s ceiling, but it continues the shift toward giving the younger core more responsibility.
Sebastian Cossa — Traded to Utah
This was the most meaningful prospect departure. Detroit moved Cossa for the No. 23 selection in the 2026 NHL Draft and selected forward J.P. Hurlbert. The organization was comfortable making that trade in part because of its belief in Trey Augustine.
Overall, I view Detroit’s offseason as a small net improvement rather than a transformation. Arvidsson fits the five-on-five need, Kolesar addresses the physicality problem and Tarasov is a reasonable backup bet. But Detroit did not add the second elite offensive creator or top-four defenseman that would allow me to move this club firmly into playoff territory.
Detroit Red Wings 2025-26 Top Five Scorers
Detroit’s five leading scorers last season were DeBrincat, Raymond, Larkin, Seider and Kane. The totals below are team-specific regular-season numbers.
What last season’s scoring tells us
Detroit has enough top-end production to be dangerous. The problem is concentration. Four returning players accounted for 288 combined points, while Kane’s 57 points are leaving the roster.
The player I expect to determine whether that loss is manageable is Raymond. He has already become an elite distributor. If he moves from 25 goals into the 30-plus range while maintaining 50-plus-assist ability, Detroit’s first line becomes significantly more difficult to contain.
What Will Define the Detroit Red Wings 2026-27 Season?
The biggest concern I see is not any single third-pairing defenseman or bottom-six forward.
It is uncertainty at the most important position on the roster.
Larkin scored 34 goals and 67 points in 74 games last season. He remains signed at an $8.7 million cap hit through 2030-31 and carries full no-trade protection in 2026-27, meaning Detroit cannot simply shop him to the highest bidder.
If Larkin stays, Detroit has a legitimate first-line center.
If he leaves without an NHL-ready center coming back, the lineup becomes dramatically thinner down the middle.
That is why my 94-point projection assumes Larkin begins the season in Detroit.
The other major variable is the young core. NHL.com identifies Nate Danielson and Michael Brandsegg-Nygard as prospects capable of contributing this season. Danielson played 28 NHL games last year before a lower-body injury ended his season, while Brandsegg-Nygard produced 44 points in 60 AHL games and another eight in eight Calder Cup playoff games.
Detroit does not need every prospect to become a star. It needs one or two to force McLellan into difficult lineup decisions.
Projected Detroit Red Wings 2026-27 Lineup
This is a projection, not a confirmed opening-night roster. It assumes Larkin remains in Detroit and Edvinsson signs before the season.
Forwards
Emmitt Finnie — Dylan Larkin — Lucas Raymond
Alex DeBrincat — Andrew Copp — Viktor Arvidsson
Carter Mazur — Marco Kasper — Mason Appleton
Michael Rasmussen — J.T. Compher — Keegan Kolesar
Defence
Simon Edvinsson — Moritz Seider
Ben Chiarot — Justin Faulk
Albert Johansson — Axel Sandin-Pellikka
Goalies
John Gibson
Daniil Tarasov
That closely mirrors NHL.com’s August projection, although Danielson and Brandsegg-Nygard could force their way into the forward group.
Detroit Red Wings 2026-27 Point Projection
Projected record: 43-31-8
Projected points: 94
Atlantic Division: 6th
Eastern Conference: approximately 10th
Playoff prediction: Narrow miss / wild-card battle
The math is straightforward:
43 wins x 2 points = 86 points
8 overtime/shootout losses = 8 points
Total = 94 points
The reason I’m slightly higher than last season’s 92 points is development. Raymond, Seider, Edvinsson, Kasper, Finnie and Sandin-Pellikka should collectively be better.
The reason I’m not projecting 100-plus is that Detroit’s problems last season were structural. A 22.58 percent power play did not compensate for 30th-ranked five-on-five scoring, a 77.14 percent penalty kill and a negative-15 overall goal differential.
Arvidsson and Kolesar help. They do not automatically solve all three problems.
2026-27 Atlantic Division Projected Standings
My independent Atlantic forecast:
Buffalo won the Atlantic with 109 points last season, Tampa Bay and Montreal each reached 106, Boston had 100 and Ottawa had 99. Detroit’s 92 points left it sixth.
The division did not stand still.
Florida added Brady Tkachuk after a disappointing 84-point season. Boston acquired J.J. Peterka. Tampa added John Carlson. Toronto added several pieces including Sergei Bobrovsky, Nick Paul and projected franchise centerpiece Gavin McKenna. Ottawa lost Brady Tkachuk but added William Eklund and Andre Burakovsky.
That is the reason I’m hesitant to declare Detroit a playoff team. The Red Wings can improve and still find themselves fighting uphill.
Detroit Red Wings Salary Cap Analysis
Cap information checked: August 31, 2026.
PuckPedia currently projects Detroit with approximately $19.57 million in cap space, a projected cap hit of approximately $84.43 million and a $104 million NHL ceiling. The important warning is that Simon Edvinsson remains unsigned, so the opening-night figure will be lower once his RFA situation is resolved.
Detroit’s largest commitments include Larkin at $8.7 million, Seider at $8.55 million, Raymond at $8.075 million and DeBrincat at $7.875 million.
The fascinating part begins in 2027.
DeBrincat, Andrew Copp, Mason Appleton, Justin Faulk, John Gibson and Tarasov are among the players currently scheduled to reach unrestricted free agency after this season, while Marco Kasper and Albert Johansson have RFA decisions approaching.
That gives the next hockey-operations leader enormous flexibility.
My cap-flexibility rating is 9/10. Few bubble teams have this much room to pivot.
NHLTradeRumor.com 2026-27 Team Outlook Model
This is an original NHLTradeRumor.com model, not a third-party metric. Each category is graded from 1-10 and weighted equally. The overall score is the simple average of the eight categories.
The 7.0 score describes Detroit well: more good than bad, but not enough elite-level certainty.
Trade Value Analysis: Dylan Larkin
No Detroit player will influence the trade market more than Larkin.
He is a legitimate top-six NHL center coming off 34 goals, carries an $8.7 million cap hit in a $104 million cap environment and is signed through 2030-31. Those are attractive fundamentals.
But his full no-trade clause significantly reduces Detroit’s leverage because Larkin can control his destination.
What Happened With Earlier Detroit Red Wings Reports?
NHLTradeRumor.com has followed the Larkin situation throughout the offseason. The important accountability point is that the underlying trade request did not disappear.
On August 30, NHLTradeRumor.com followed up on the original story after Elliotte Friedman indicated he believed Larkin’s request still stood. We also correctly distinguished the confirmed trade request from speculative destinations such as Montreal.
That distinction should remain central to coverage this season.
Larkin wanting a trade is established.
A specific Larkin trade being imminent is not.
My Biggest Concern
Detroit still needs too much to go right simultaneously.
Gibson needs to provide stable starting goaltending. The penalty kill needs to improve. The five-on-five offense needs to jump. Arvidsson has to stay productive into his mid-30s. At least one young forward needs to make a meaningful leap.
None of those individual expectations is unreasonable.
Needing all of them is the problem.
The Player Who Could Change Everything
Detroit knows what it has in Larkin, DeBrincat, Raymond and Seider. Kasper becoming a legitimate two-way second-line center would change the organization’s roster construction.
It would also give Detroit something it currently lacks if the Larkin situation eventually ends in a trade: another young center capable of climbing the lineup.
The Offseason Move I Like Most
Viktor Arvidsson.
The reason is simple. Detroit’s biggest offensive weakness was five-on-five scoring, and Arvidsson generated 45 even-strength points last season.
That is a much more relevant stat for Detroit than simply saying he scored 25 goals.
Final Detroit Red Wings 2026-27 Prediction
Projected Record: 43-31-8
Projected Points: 94
Division Finish: 6th Atlantic
Projected Eastern Conference Finish: 10th
Playoff Prediction: Misses narrowly after a wild-card race
Stanley Cup Outlook: Long shot
Biggest X-Factor: Dylan Larkin
My projection is higher than last season’s 92 points because I expect growth from Detroit’s young core and believe Arvidsson and Kolesar address identifiable roster weaknesses.
But this is still a team living in the NHL’s most unforgiving neighborhood.
For Detroit to outperform 94 points, the Red Wings probably need one of two things to happen: Larkin recommits and produces another first-line season, or the eventual trade return immediately improves the NHL roster rather than simply adding futures.
If either happens while Seider, Raymond, Edvinsson, Kasper and Sandin-Pellikka continue progressing, Detroit can absolutely challenge for a wild-card berth.
If not, the 2026-27 season could become less about finally ending the playoff drought and more about deciding what the next version of the Detroit Red Wings will look like.
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