The blockbuster free agent signing of the offseason is done, and the question every single fantasy hockey manager is asking is the same: What does Mitch Marner’s move to the Vegas Golden Knights actually mean for his point totals? After a stellar 102-point campaign (27 goals, 75 assists) last year, can he replicate that magic in the desert without his perennial trigger-man, Auston Matthews?
Let’s cut right to the chase. After running the models and analyzing the new dynamics, I’m projecting a slight, but not alarming, recalibration for Marner. The idea that his production will fall off a cliff is, frankly, lazy analysis. However, the nature of his points will change. Playing alongside Jack Eichel—a phenomenal talent but more of a dual-threat playmaker than a pure sniper—means Marner will be forced to call his own number more often. The days of force-feeding a 60-goal scorer are over; the era of Marner the goal-scorer is about to begin.
Analyzing the Eichel-Marner Dynamic
It’s the central question for anyone drafting Marner this fall. Jack Eichel is not Auston Matthews. While Eichel possesses a heavy, lethal shot, his instinct is to create, much like Marner’s. Last season, we saw Marner with a staggering 75 assists. In Vegas, that number is destined to come down. However, his goal total is poised for a significant jump.
Eichel’s speed and power driving through the middle of the ice will create chaos and open up lanes that Marner can exploit. Instead of looking for the pass-first, second, and third option, Marner will find himself in prime shooting locations more frequently. I foresee more give-and-go plays where Marner is the one finishing. He won’t just be the setup man; he’ll be a primary scoring option. This shift is crucial. Expect fewer assists, but don’t be surprised if Marner challenges his career-high in goals.
Power Play Gold in the Desert
This is where Marner could truly feast and buffer any potential 5-on-5 point adjustment. A top power-play unit featuring Marner, Eichel, Tomas Hertl, Pavel Dorofeyev, and the elite puck-moving Shea Theodore at the point is terrifying. Theodore is a master at walking the line and finding seams, Eichel is a threat from the half-wall, and Hertl provides the net-front presence.
Marner will be the quarterback, the primary distributor from the other half-wall, manipulating penalty killers with his vision. With so many legitimate threats, Marner will have ample space to either thread a pass or wire a shot himself. A 35-to-40-point season on the man advantage alone is well within reach.
So, what’s the final verdict? The assist total will dip from the astronomical 75 he posted last season, but his goal-scoring will see a notable increase. He remains an elite, top-tier fantasy asset.
Official 2025-2026 Projection: 32 Goals, 65 Assists, 97 Points
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The post Mitch Marner Point Projections 2025-26: Why a Vegas Pairing with Eichel Could Unlock a New Level appeared first on NHL Trade Rumors.
