Tage Thompson has already established himself as one of the NHL’s most dangerous goal scorers, but his fantasy hockey outlook for the 2026-27 season may be even more interesting than his 40-goal performance last year. My projection for Thompson is 42 goals, 44 assists and 86 points in 80 games, making him a legitimate high-end fantasy C1 with additional value in shots, power-play production and multi-category leagues.
Thompson recorded 40 goals and 41 assists for 81 points in 81 games last season, finishing as Buffalo’s leading scorer while helping the Sabres win the Atlantic Division and finally return to the Stanley Cup Playoffs. He also produced 272 shots, 24 power-play points, 85 hits and 48 blocked shots. That combination of elite goal scoring and secondary category coverage gives Thompson a noticeably safer fantasy floor than many forwards projected in the 75-to-85-point range.
The biggest question is how Buffalo’s changing roster will affect him. Alex Tuch departed after producing 66 points last season, removing an established scorer from the Sabres’ top six. That could hurt some of Thompson’s five-on-five chemistry, but it should also concentrate more offensive-zone possessions, shooting opportunities and power-play touches around Buffalo’s No. 1 center. My expectation is that Thompson remains near the 40-goal mark while generating a modest increase in assists.
Tage Thompson Fantasy Hockey Projection for the 2026-27 NHL Season
Thompson’s projected 86-point season is built around an expected workload of approximately 80 games, 275 to 285 shots and 24 to 27 power-play points. Those numbers would represent a slight improvement over last season without requiring an unrealistic shooting-percentage spike.
- Projected games played: 80
- Projected goals: 42
- Projected assists: 44
- Projected points: 86
- Projected power-play points: 26
- Projected shots: 280
The foundation of Thompson’s fantasy value continues to be his shot. NHL EDGE data previously identified him as the NHL leader in five-on-five goals and credited him with a 106 mph shot, the hardest recorded during the first four seasons of EDGE tracking. His release allows him to score from areas where most forwards are simply trying to create rebounds. That is a repeatable weapon rather than a one-season percentage anomaly.
Why Tage Thompson Can Reach 86 Points in 2026-27
Buffalo used Thompson alongside combinations involving Jason Zucker, Josh Norris, Josh Doan and Rasmus Dahlin during important power-play situations last season. Doan developed into a useful net-front and interior scoring option, while Norris supplied another legitimate one-timer threat. Dahlin remains the unit’s primary distributor and should continue creating space for Thompson’s shot from the flank. Training-camp combinations may change, but Thompson’s position on the first unit is secure.
For this prediction, I weighted Thompson’s production over the previous two seasons, expected shot volume, top-line role, power-play deployment and Buffalo’s offseason roster changes. The result is a small increase from 81 to 86 points rather than an aggressive projection into the 95-to-100-point range.
There is still considerable upside. A healthy Thompson could approach 46 goals and 94 points if Buffalo owns a top-10 power play and quickly finds a productive replacement for Tuch on the top line. His downside range is approximately 35 goals and 73 points if injuries return or Buffalo’s new forward combinations struggle to generate consistent five-on-five offense.
Tage Thompson Fantasy Hockey Draft Advice
From my fantasy-draft perspective, Thompson belongs in the second tier of NHL centers, immediately after the small group of players capable of challenging for 100 points. I would be especially aggressive in formats that reward goals, shots, power-play points and hits. Center is a deep fantasy position, but very few centers can give a manager 40 goals, 275-plus shots and respectable physical production without sacrificing assists.
Thompson may not be the safest choice for managers who prioritize assists above every other category. However, his ability to win the goal and shot categories in a given week makes him more valuable than an ordinary point-per-game forward. My final Tage Thompson point projection for 2026-27 is 42 goals, 44 assists and 86 points.
Tage Thompson Career NHL Stats
| Type | GP | G | A | P | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season | 529 | 216 | 190 | 406 | -62 |
| Playoffs | 13 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 0 |
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