Matthew Tkachuk is one of my favorite bounce-back fantasy hockey targets entering the 2026–27 NHL season, and my projection has him finishing with 34 goals, 58 assists and 92 points in 79 games for the Florida Panthers.
That might look aggressive considering Tkachuk finished last season with only 34 points, but the raw total hides the most important part of his fantasy story. He produced 13 goals and 21 assists in just 31 games, a 1.10 points-per-game rate, after missing Florida’s first 47 games while recovering from surgery.
Now add a healthy Aleksander Barkov, the arrival of Brady Tkachuk, Sam Reinhart and potentially Aaron Ekblad or Seth Jones on the Panthers’ first power-play unit, and suddenly the offensive environment surrounding Matthew looks significantly different. Florida could have one of hockey’s nastiest net-front power-play combinations.
For fantasy managers, that’s the key. Don’t draft the 34-point player from last year’s stat sheet. Draft the player who scored those 34 points in only 31 games.
How Many Points Will Matthew Tkachuk Score in 2026-27?
My current Matthew Tkachuk fantasy hockey projection is:
34 goals + 58 assists = 92 points in 79 games.
I arrived at that number by weighting Tkachuk’s three most recent seasons rather than simply extrapolating last year’s shortened campaign.
Tkachuk recorded 88 points in 80 games in 2023–24, 57 points in 52 games during 2024–25 and 34 points in 31 games last season. Remarkably, despite the injuries and wildly different game totals, his underlying scoring pace across those seasons has remained very close to 1.10 points per game.
That’s an important fantasy signal.
His talent didn’t disappear. His availability did.
My model weights the most recent three seasons at 50%, 30% and 20%, producing a baseline of roughly 1.097 points per game. I then project 79 games rather than assuming a perfect 82-game season and apply a modest six-percent offensive-environment adjustment for Florida’s healthier roster, Brady Tkachuk’s arrival and the potential improvement of the Panthers’ power play.
That brings my final projection to roughly 92 points.
For comparison, NHL.com’s official fantasy projection currently has Matthew at 87 points and ranks him No. 24 overall.
I’m taking the over.
Matthew Tkachuk 2026-27 Fantasy Projection Model
Why Matthew Tkachuk Could Beat His 2026-27 Fantasy Projection
The addition of Brady Tkachuk is where this becomes especially interesting.
Florida doesn’t necessarily need the brothers stapled together at five-on-five for Matthew to benefit. NHL.com has published different potential even-strength configurations since the Brady trade, but the much more important fantasy development is the expectation that the brothers will share first-unit power-play time with Reinhart and Barkov.
Think about how difficult that unit will be to defend below the circles.
Matthew Tkachuk has always been elite at working around the crease, retrieving loose pucks and creating offense from traffic. Brady brings many of the same qualities. Reinhart is one of hockey’s premier finishers around the net, while Barkov can distribute from virtually anywhere in the offensive zone.
The tracking data supports the idea that Matthew remains dangerous. He ranked in the 97th percentile in offensive-zone time percentage last season at 47.4%, despite playing only 31 games.
That matters to me more than his raw 34-point total.
Fantasy hockey owners sometimes overreact to season totals without examining why the total was low. Tkachuk’s problem wasn’t diminished offensive production when he played; it was simply that he didn’t play enough.
There’s still risk. He’s dealt with significant injuries over the past two seasons, which is why I don’t want to automatically pencil him in for all 82 games. But at age 28, NHL.com considers him healthy entering camp and has him back inside the top 25 overall fantasy players.
For me, that makes Tkachuk an attractive player if other managers allow the recent injury history to push him down draft boards.
My final 2026–27 Matthew Tkachuk fantasy prediction: 79 games, 34 goals, 58 assists and 92 points.
If he plays 82 and Florida’s power play returns to elite territory, 100 points is absolutely within his ceiling.
Matthew Tkachuk Career NHL Stats
| Type | GP | G | A | P | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season | 673 | 253 | 417 | 670 | 124 |
| Playoffs | 94 | 32 | 52 | 84 | 8 |
Find the Latest Florida Panthers News
For the latest Florida Panthers news, Matthew Tkachuk updates, NHL trade rumors and fantasy hockey predictions, add nhltraderumor.com to your bookmarks. While you’re here, join our NHL Fantasy Hockey Pool to test your GM skills against other hockey fans and compete for bragging rights all season long. You can also find out what channel the Panthers game is on TV today with our NHL TV schedule coverage. Don’t forget to sign up for our newsletter below so you don’t miss the biggest stories around the league.
The post Matthew Tkachuk Fantasy Hockey Prediction: 2026-27 Florida Panthers Projection appeared first on NHL Trade Rumors.
