My Alex Ovechkin point projections for 2026-27 have the Washington Capitals legend producing 33 goals, 32 assists and 65 points over the NHL’s 84-game schedule.
Yes, Ovechkin will turn 41 shortly before the season begins. Yes, Washington could manage his minutes more carefully than it did during his prime. But fantasy managers writing off the greatest goal scorer in NHL history may be making the same mistake people have made repeatedly over the past decade. Ovechkin just played all 82 games at age 40 and still led Washington with 32 goals and 64 points while firing 244 shots on net.
The biggest reason I am projecting a slight increase rather than significant regression is what Washington did around him. The Capitals added Jordan Kyrou and Alex Tuch, two proven 30-goal scorers who should make opposing penalty kills and top defensive pairs far less comfortable loading up exclusively on Ovechkin. NHL.com currently projects only 63 points for Ovechkin, so my forecast is only modestly more aggressive.
The immediate fantasy takeaway is simple: Ovechkin no longer needs to be drafted like a superstar to provide superstar-level goal value. If his draft position settles outside the top 100, his combination of goals, shots, hits and power-play upside could make him one of the more fascinating veteran values in 2026-27.
Alex Ovechkin Fantasy Hockey Projection for 2026-27
Ovechkin’s 64 points in 82 games last season translate to roughly 65.6 points over 84 games. In other words, my 65-point forecast does not require a late-career renaissance. It essentially requires Ovechkin to maintain the scoring rate he already produced at age 40.
Can Alex Ovechkin Score 30 Goals Again at Age 41?
I would bet on it.
Ovechkin scored 32 goals last season despite producing only five on the power play, the lowest power-play goal total of his NHL career. He still generated 244 shots and 542 shot attempts while averaging 17:27 per game. He also recorded 134 hits, giving fantasy managers useful category coverage beyond goals and points.
That five-goal power-play number jumps off the page to me. Ovechkin owns the NHL record for career power-play goals, yet Washington’s power play finished only 25th in the League last season at 17.8 percent. Even modest improvement could replace some of the five-on-five regression that naturally comes with age.
My personal observation is that this is where fantasy managers sometimes make Ovechkin unnecessarily complicated. You do not need to determine whether a 41-year-old can somehow become a faster or more complete player. You need to determine whether one of hockey’s greatest shooters can still find enough open ice to score roughly once every two-and-a-half games.
After watching him score 32 times at age 40, my answer remains yes.
Washington’s New Power Play Could Be Ovechkin’s Biggest Fantasy Boost
The Capitals’ offseason could dramatically change the geometry around Ovechkin.
Jordan Kyrou scored 30-plus goals in each of the past three seasons, while Alex Tuch is also a three-time 30-goal scorer. Washington now has significantly more shooting talent capable of forcing penalty killers to respect the opposite side of the ice instead of cheating toward Ovechkin’s familiar left-circle shooting position.
Dylan Strome remains a natural playmaking partner, while Tom Wilson continues to provide a net-front presence. Ryan Leonard could also earn opportunities. On defense, Jakob Chychrun has the shot to remain involved, but young Cole Hutson is a legitimate candidate to eventually quarterback Washington’s top unit after recording six power-play points in only 14 games last season.
That means I would not assume today’s projected PP1 will necessarily be October’s PP1. What I am confident about is Ovechkin’s role. If he is healthy, the Capitals are not taking one of the greatest power-play weapons in NHL history away from his office.
Ovechkin’s Ice Time Is the Biggest Fantasy Risk
Age itself is not the only concern. Deployment matters.
Capitals coach Spencer Carbery has acknowledged that Ovechkin could see slightly reduced ice time on Washington’s deeper roster while still remaining an important and productive player. The additions of Kyrou, Tuch and Boone Jenner mean the Capitals no longer need Ovechkin carrying the offensive load every night.
That is good for Washington but creates an interesting fantasy trade-off. Fewer minutes could reduce Ovechkin’s raw scoring opportunities, but fresher legs and stronger linemates could make those minutes more productive.
I am building some regression into my projection rather than expecting the extra two games to automatically boost his totals. My 33 goals are only one above last season, and I have kept him at 32 assists. Essentially, I expect better offensive support to offset a small reduction in individual workload.
Alex Ovechkin Fantasy Projection Model: Floor, Expected and Ceiling
The ceiling scenario requires Washington’s power play to rebound significantly. If Ovechkin jumps from five power-play goals into the eight-to-12 range, 35-plus total goals become realistic again.
Even NHL.com’s Ovechkin Projection Suggests Draft-Day Value
NHL.com currently projects Ovechkin for 63 points and ranks him 102nd overall in fantasy hockey. My projection comes in only two points higher at 65.
That ranking is where things become interesting.
If Ovechkin is available around the eighth or ninth round of a 12-team draft, I would be extremely interested, particularly in formats rewarding goals, shots, hits and power-play points. A 30-plus-goal player who still shoots frequently and contributes physically can outperform his overall point ranking.
Winnipeg Jets general manager Kevin Cheveldayoff summed up the difficulty of projecting Ovechkin’s decline in an email interview with NHL.com: “Ovechkin defies Father Time when it comes to being an impact player.”
That quote captures my fantasy outlook almost perfectly. At some point, age will win. Predicting exactly when it happens to Ovechkin, however, has been a losing exercise for years.
Ovechkin Salary-Cap Value Snapshot
Ovechkin’s new one-year contract carries a published $4.25 million AAV. Using that figure against my 65-point projection produces an illustrative cost of roughly $65,000 in cap AAV per projected point. His contract includes salary, signing and games-played bonus components, so this calculation is intended as an editorial cap-efficiency comparison rather than formal NHL cap accounting.
Where Should Alex Ovechkin Be Drafted in Fantasy Hockey?
I would target Ovechkin aggressively once a fantasy draft moves beyond the first 80 or 90 selections.
His age means he should no longer be treated like the automatic top-25 fantasy player he once was. But his upside remains unusually high for someone ranked around 100th overall. Goals are difficult to replace in fantasy hockey, and very few players available in that range have a realistic path to 35 goals while also contributing 230-plus shots and triple-digit hits.
My expected range is 60-to-67 points, with a floor around 55 if his ice time falls more quickly than expected. A revitalized Washington power play could push him toward 70.
The official NHLTradeRumor.com projection is 33 goals, 32 assists and 65 points. At age 41, that would be remarkable for almost anyone else. With Alex Ovechkin, it somehow feels entirely believable.
Alex Ovechkin Career NHL Stats
| Type | GP | G | A | P | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season | 1573 | 929 | 758 | 1687 | 55 |
| Playoffs | 161 | 77 | 70 | 147 | 3 |
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